Strategic Move #11 • Open Performance Auditing • Cryptographic Provenance

The Verified Prediction & Settlement Track Record

Prediction market quants don't accept marketing claims. We provide an immutable, cryptographic ledger of contract resolutions. Every prediction is timestamped and hashed prior to settlement, evaluated against official CME CF BRTI and UMA outcomes, and audited with Murphy/Yates Brier decomposition.

Settled Windows 1,316 1,316 distinct contracts (19,740 1m candles)

Forecast Horizon Minute 4 11 min to expiry checkpoint

Market Benchmark 0.2001 Kalshi 4-min mid Brier

Internal Model 0.2063 Market beats model (Honest)

Capital at Risk $0.00 Rule B5 locked standby

Murphy/Yates Mathematical Identity Audit

Brier Score = Reliability (Error) - Resolution (Discrimination) + Uncertainty (Entropy)

Rel: 0.0094

Res: 0.0593

Unc: 0.25

All Markets Crypto (15M / 1H) Macro / Rates Elections / Politics

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Provenance & Horizon Clarity: Each row records an explicit forecast ID and horizon checkpoint (e.g. Minute 4 entry with 11 minutes to expiry). Recurring contract tickers represent separate temporal checkpoints evaluated across the contract lifecycle, not duplicate records. Evaluated sample: 1,316 settled contracts with independent pre-settlement timestamps.

Settled Date (UTC)	Forecast ID	Contract Ticker	Forecast Horizon	Event / Strike Description	Call Odds	Model Prob	Settled Outcome	Brier Loss	SHA-256 Provenance Fingerprint

✦ QUANT PIPELINE • STEP 4 OF 4: REVIEW • EXPLORE COMPANION TERMINALS

Empirical Audit & Settlement Forensics

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Step 1: Scan Live Markets →

Compare cross-venue pricing discrepancies

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Download 19,740 1-minute raw candle rows

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Log trade premises and personal Brier scores

Rule B1 & Rule B4 Standard: All settlement entries reflect historical observations recorded prior to market closure. QuanterraOS does not provide investment advice, promise returns, or claim superior performance over exchange prices. Market mid-prices outperform internal model forecasts.

Rule B5 Permanent Circuit Breaker Notice: $0.00 capital deployed under permanent standby lock. Zero automated order placement.

Third-Party Marks Attribution (Rule B10): CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) is a calculation of CF Benchmarks Ltd and CME Group Inc. Kalshi is a trademark of Kalshi Inc. Polymarket is a trademark of Blockratize, Inc. UMA is a protocol of Risk Labs. QuanterraOS is an independent measurement system with no exchange affiliation.