QuanterraOS — Council Console

Kalshi market-mid Brier

0.2001

market benchmark vs 0.2500 coin-flip · model (0.2063) does not beat it

Falcon Brier score

0.2736

vs 0.2500 coin-flip baseline (underperforming by +0.0236)

audited markets

1,316

16 missing of 1,332 theoretical windows

capital deployed

$0.00

zero live capital deployed · Rule B5 locked

QUANTERRA:> COUNCIL.ORCHESTRATOR

AUTONOMOUS EXECUTIVE ENGINE CALIBRATION AUDIT ACTIVE · PROSPECTIVE SURVEILLANCE

CYCLE STATUS: ACTIVE

Calibration Cadence

CONTINUOUS (24/7)

Empirical sampling active

Settled Windows Evaluated

1,316 WINDOWS

Empirically verified across settled markets

Hypothesis Formulations

3 TESTED / 2 PASSED

50¢+1.75¢=51.75% · 51¢+1.75¢=52.75%

Adversarial Synthetic Shocks

3/3 ASSERTIONS VERIFIED

Rule B5 $0.00 exposure (Not trade return)

The eight specialists

Formula One Telemetry & AI Grid

F1-TEST-04Falcon

0.2736

Order-book depth monitoring (research)

F1-POWER-05Quantum Fox

0.2001

Market baseline & quantitative validation

F1-BRAKE-08Phoenix

locked

Execution circuit breaker & safety gate

F1-ECU-02Draco

19,740 rows

Data integrity & tick quality gate

F1-RADIO-06Sentinel

0 alerts

Calibration drift & systems surveillance

F1-AERO-03Wolf

microstructure

Order-book dynamics & spread compression

F1-SAFETY-07Kraken

$0.00 exposure

Risk governance & CME CF BRTI basis

F1-CHIEF-01Lion

consensus

Consensus synthesis & calibration verdict

01 Council Pipeline (8 Stages)

02 Order-Book Microstructure (L2 Depth)

03 10-Bin Calibration Radar (n=1,316)

04 Market Dislocation & Swings (§12)

Council evaluation pipeline Standby (Calibrated)

8-stage empirical verification sequence · Audits data recency, microstructure depth, and pre-registered benchmarks

Cycle #1

Draco verified

Wolf tracking

Falcon scanned

Quantum Fox audited

Sentinel nominal

Kraken locked

Lion calibrated

Phoenix locked

Order-book dynamics & queue depth monitoring

Wolf microstructure engine · Live snapshot evaluation of KXBTC15M & KXBTCD contracts

spread: $0.0100 (1.00¢)

Market View: 15 Min · KXBTC15M → 1 Hour · KXBTCD Multi-Strike →

CME CF BRTI 60s TWAP Settlement

YES CONTRACTS Kalshi KXBTC15M

Ask $0.45 180 contracts

Bid $0.44 250 contracts

Midpoint: $0.4450 · Imbalance skew: +0.0350

NO CONTRACTS Kalshi KXBTC15M

Ask $0.56 250 contracts

Bid $0.55 180 contracts

Midpoint: $0.5550 · Imbalance skew: -0.0350

Queue Depth Imbalance +0.0350 (mild YES pressure)

-1.00 (Heavy Sell) 0.00 (Neutral) +1.00 (Heavy Buy)

Wolf Audit Note: Ingestion valid-from timestamp fixed at 2026-09-26T13:10:27Z. All snapshots before this threshold were corrupted by Kalshi's inverse best-bid extract bug and have been strictly excised from analytical memory.

10-bin calibration decomposition (n=1,316)

Murphy decomposition of minute-4 market mid-price across 1,316 settled 15-minute contracts (findings.md §9b).

Price bin	Markets (n)	Quoted forecast	Actual yes rate	Difference
0.00 – 0.10	18	0.050	0.111	+0.061
0.10 – 0.20	79	0.150	0.190	+0.040
0.20 – 0.30	150	0.250	0.200	-0.050
0.30 – 0.40	183	0.350	0.333	-0.017
0.40 – 0.50	211	0.450	0.436	-0.014
0.50 – 0.60	187	0.550	0.588	+0.038
0.60 – 0.70	211	0.650	0.649	-0.001
0.70 – 0.80	157	0.750	0.771	+0.021
0.80 – 0.90	101	0.850	0.891	+0.041
0.90 – 1.00	19	0.950	0.895	-0.055

Minute-by-minute Brier progression (Market vs Fair-Value Model)

Entry minute	Market Mid Brier	Model Brier	Disagreement Trade EV	Verdict
Minute 4	0.2001	0.2063	−2.15¢ (n=1,027)	Market beats model
Minute 7	0.1685	0.1755	−1.88¢ (n=1,057)	Market beats model
Minute 10	0.1248	0.1333	−0.92¢ (n=1,173)	Market beats model
Minute 13	0.0731	0.0835	+0.42¢ (unverified)	Market beats model

Sudden price-swing event backtest (§12)

Rigorous walk-forward analysis of sudden price moves (≥ ±8 percentage points in 5 min) across 131 settled events.

Execution strategy	Full sample win rate	Full sample net profit	Walk-forward Brier	Market benchmark Brier	Empirical verdict
Momentum (Continuation)	75.57% (99/131)	+12.72¢	0.1863	0.1838	No Edge (95% CI spans zero)
Fade (Mean Reversion)	24.43% (32/131)	−15.37¢	0.3083	0.1838	No Edge (underperforms random)

Empirical Finding: Despite an apparent 75.6% hit rate for momentum in-sample, out-of-sample walk-forward evaluation demonstrates the market's own post-swing price beats the momentum rule on Brier score (0.1838 vs 0.1863). Fading the move loses over 15¢ per contract. Phoenix circuit breaker remains locked under Rule B5.

Audit specialist: Quantum Fox

Queries are audited against repository findings and recorded benchmarks.

Quantum Fox system ready

Standing by. You may query our 1,316-market calibration baseline, out-of-sample test results, or the Falcon order-book monitoring research.

citation: findings.md §9b · Brier 0.2001

Audit events

2026-10-04 10:45:00 Lion verified 1,316-market baseline Brier score: 0.2001. Well-calibrated.

2026-10-04 10:44:20 Falcon out-of-sample evaluation: Brier 0.2736 (n=31). Underperforming random baseline.

2026-10-04 10:43:10 Phoenix safety circuit confirmed: Rule B5 locked. Zero live capital deployed ($0.00).