Pre-Trade True-Cost Verification · Level 1 Consumer Tool

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True Cost & Net EV Check

Short-duration prediction markets are zero-sum before fees, and strictly negative-sum after exchange fees and spreads. Enter your price and quantity to verify exact fee drag and your true breakeven hurdle before entering any contract.

⚡ First-Use Preview: Try an unauthenticated example check (10 contracts @ 51¢) and preview your personal outcome journal with zero sign-up friction.

1. Contract Order Inputs KXBTC15M MODEL

Market-Link Intake (One-Click Populate) Supports Kalshi 15M/1H & Polymarket BTC links or tickers

Contract Price (Executable Ask)

51¢ ($0.51)

Per-contract purchase price. Half-spread is already factored into executable ask.

Quantity (Contract Count) 10 contracts

Kalshi rounds taker fees up to the nearest cent on the entire order.

Directional Side

Contract Venue

Immediate Friction Summary Rule B5 Verified

Purchase Outlay: $5.10

Exchange Taker Fee: $0.18 (1.80¢/ct)

Maximum Loss: $5.28

Required Breakeven: 52.80%

✦ Stated Reason / Premise (Focus Mode Anchor):

A verified premise ensures conscious adherence to your voluntary risk plan.

⚙️ Advanced Assumptions (Win Probability, Pricing Mode & Spread Drag)

Pricing Mode Reference

✓ Standard Ask: Half-spread is already built into the market ask. No additional spread penalty is added.

Assessed Win Probability (Subjective Thesis)

55.0%

Your subjective assessment. This is your personal opinion, NOT an automated forecast.

Observed Bid-Ask Spread 2.0¢

Full spread between best bid and best ask. Half-spread is added to mid-price.

Why this matters on Kalshi 15M: Taker fees are calculated on the aggregate order using Kalshi's official round-up rule: ceil(0.07 × Count × P × (1 − P)). For 10 contracts @ 51¢ ask, the $0.18 taker fee (1.80¢/ct) creates a 52.80% breakeven hurdle ($5.28 max loss).

2. Net Expected Value & Hurdle POSITIVE ESTIMATED EV

Net EV Per Contract (Under Stated Assumptions)

+$0.0220

+$0.22 net expectancy on 10 contracts (user thesis: 55.0%)

Total Taker Fee

$0.18 (1.80¢/ct)

Total Outlay + Fee

$5.28

Purchase Cost (10x @ 51¢) $5.10

Exchange Taker Fee $0.18

Maximum Loss (Capital at Risk) $5.28

Required Breakeven Win Rate 52.80%

Stated User Thesis vs. Ask (55.0% - 51.0%) +4.00¢

Settlement Reference Benchmark CME CF BRTI 60s TWAP

Contract Horizon 15-Minute Intraday (KXBTC15M)

✦ Published Exchange Fee Reality ANTI-FRICTION

Many consumer interfaces display nominal spreads without deducting Kalshi taker fees. At 51¢ ask, the exchange taker fee is 1.75¢/ct—consuming up to 43.8% of gross profit on a 50¢ mid baseline, requiring a 52.75% win rate (or 52.80% for 10 contracts due to discrete cent-rounding) just to break even.

Independent Referee • Zero Venue Bias Full Benchmark →

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            VERIFIED CONTRACT EVIDENCE CARD
          

KXBTC15M · 15-Minute Intraday Above/Below

CFTC REGULATED

Executable Ask

            51¢ ($0.51)
          

Order Taker Fee

            $0.18 ($0.018/ct)
          

Required Breakeven

            52.80%
          

Max Dollar Loss

            $5.28
          

Empirical Calibration Benchmark (N = 1,316 settled windows):
Contracts in the 45¢–55¢ band resolve YES at 50.8% (Wilson 95% CI: 48.1%–53.5%). The market Brier score of 0.2001 reflects strong aggregation. At an ask of 51¢, your required breakeven is 52.80%.

Settlement Oracle: CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI 60s TWAP)

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True Cost & Net EV Check