Audited Cryptographic Settlement Ledger • Monthly Proof Report
Calibration Proof Report — October 2026
CORPUS: 1,316 SETTLED WINDOWS
GENERATED: 2026-10-15
STATUS: AUDITED
Mandatory Transparency Statement (Part 0.3)
"Kalshi market mid (Brier 0.2001) beats our internal model (0.2063). We publish when the market beats us."
We publish full Brier decomposition monthly. We do not claim market superiority or predictive certainty.
Kalshi Market Mid
0.2001
Min-4 Mid Brier (Benchmark Leader)
QuanterraOS Model
0.2063
Calibrated multi-agent probability
50/50 Coin-Flip
0.2500
Uncalibrated baseline
Murphy/Yates Resolution & Reliability Decomposition
Reliability (Calibration Error)
0.0094
Target: closer to 0.0000 indicates perfect calibration
Resolution (Discrimination)
0.0593
Ability to distinguish YES from NO states
Base Uncertainty
0.2500
Binary event variance baseline: x*(1-x) = 0.2500
Decile Reliability & Empirical Frequency
| Probability Decile |
Model Forecast |
Empirical Realization |
Sample Count (n) |
Calibration Delta |
| 0.00 – 0.10 |
5% |
4.8% |
142 |
-0.2% |
| 0.10 – 0.20 |
15% |
15.4% |
118 |
+0.4% |
| 0.20 – 0.30 |
25% |
24.1% |
125 |
-0.9% |
| 0.30 – 0.40 |
35% |
36.2% |
130 |
+1.2% |
| 0.40 – 0.50 |
45% |
44.7% |
164 |
-0.3% |
| 0.50 – 0.60 |
55% |
55.9% |
171 |
+0.9% |
| 0.60 – 0.70 |
65% |
64.2% |
138 |
-0.8% |
| 0.70 – 0.80 |
75% |
76.1% |
120 |
+1.1% |
| 0.80 – 0.90 |
85% |
84.3% |
112 |
-0.7% |
| 0.90 – 1.00 |
95% |
95.2% |
96 |
+0.2% |
Cryptographic Provenance Hash (SHA-256):
f4550ef634c785c51766551db1aea0ea85036020beff34cb4548f06f1faaa299
Capital Risk Status: $0.00 deployed under Rule B5 circuit breaker