STATION 1 OF 7 // MAIN VIEWSCREEN

Bridge Station

Primary command cockpit. Monitor daily discipline missions, ship hull & fuel telemetry, active alerts, and consult Aria for non-advisory operational calculations.

THE ODDS DEFENDERS // CAMPAIGN DISPATCH

Your next decision deserves a receipt.

Check the assumptions and costs behind a supported market.

Which market platform do you use?

Check a market →

FLIGHT GEAR • RAFFLES • TOURNAMENTS

Mascot Hoodies, Aerospace Jumpsuits & Bespoke Executive Suits

Redeem earned Flight XP or enter weekly gear raffles and calibration skill tournaments ($0.00 live risk).

Explore Gear →

WELCOME CADET // ONBOARDING COCKPIT BRIEFING

60-Second Flight Deck Briefing: How Pre-Flight Checks Save $142.50/mo

Explore the 7 stations, monitor real-time CME CF BRTI settlement dispersion, eliminate toxic taker fees, and build discipline XP from Cadet to Admiral.

Upgrade Pilot ($39/mo) →

ARIA // SHIP'S COMPUTER

Non-Advisory Analytical Engine · Rule B5 Compliant

"I cannot tell you what to trade, but I can show you exactly what any contract costs, where exchange taker fees peak, and how it settles. What contract shall we inspect?"

HULL INTEGRITY 🛡️

80%

Loss Limit: $10.00 / $50.00 ($40.00 headroom)

Under 30% → Security Chief suggests standing down

FUEL RESERVE ⚡

84%

Runway: $42.00 of $50.00 fee budget

Fee burn rate on track with monthly runway

NAV ACCURACY Sharp (Beating Market)

0.1258

Outperforming market (0.2001) & coin-flip (0.2500)

+37.13% calibration advantage

DISCIPLINE XP ⭐ ANTI-VOLUME

100%

+140 XP (Cadet)

Strictly for pre-flight checks & written thesis

⚙️ VOLUNTARY SHIP LIMITS // HEADROOM & RUNWAY SIMULATOR PILOT SELF-REGULATION

Daily Loss Limit $50.00

Current Realized Loss $10.00

Monthly Fee Budget $50.00

Incurred Fees $8.00

TODAY'S DISCIPLINE MISSIONS ANTI-VOLUME REWARDS

XP is awarded exclusively for planning, testing, thesis writing, and post-trade reflection. No XP is ever awarded for trade count, volume, or winning.

✓

Pre-Flight Fee Check

Audited aggregate order taker fee drag before submission

+20 XP
✓

Written Thesis Required

Logged falsifiable observation reason in captain's log

+30 XP
Maker Limit Order Placed

Saved 100% taker fee friction by providing passive liquidity

+40 XP
Post-Settlement Calibration Review

Reconciled outcome against assessed probability

+50 XP

PILOT RANKS & COSMETIC UNLOCKS ANTI-VOLUME REWARDS ONLY

Level up from Cadet to Admiral strictly by pre-flight checks, written theses, maker liquidity, and calibration accuracy. Unlocks are strictly cosmetic (ship hull skins, HUD themes, officer crests) — never trading features or fee volume discounts.

Cadet

0 XP

3 Cosmetics

Pilot

50 XP

3 Cosmetics

Lieutenant

150 XP

3 Cosmetics

Commander

350 XP

3 Cosmetics

Captain

700 XP

3 Cosmetics

Admiral

1200 XP

3 Cosmetics

Unlocked Cosmetic Inventory:

SHIP SKIN UNLOCKED

Void Black Hull

Standard matte carbon finish for training cruisers.

HUD THEME UNLOCKED

Monospace Amber Telemetry

Classic monochrome cockpit heads-up display.

CREW PORTRAIT UNLOCKED

Ensign Insignia

Standard Flight Academy cadet flight crest.

SHIP SKIN UNLOCKED

Nebula Cyan Plating

Reflective atmospheric shielding with cyan hull accents.

HUD THEME UNLOCKED

Cyan Glow HUD

High-contrast telemetry with enhanced TWAP indicator block contrast.

CREW PORTRAIT UNLOCKED

Aviator Wings

Earned by completing pre-flight checks and thesis discipline.

🏆 FLEET DISCIPLINE LEADERBOARDS

OPT-IN & PSEUDONYMOUS

Ranked strictly by Calibration Accuracy (minimum n=30 settled logs to prevent small-sample luck) and Friction Avoidance (cumulative fees saved via Maker Saver). Never ranked by profit, ROI, or volume (Part 0.3 Guardrail 4).

BENCHMARKS: KALSHI MARKET MID: 0.2001 · COIN-FLIP RANDOM: 0.2500 GATE: MINIMUM 30 SETTLED LOGS

#	CALLSIGN	RANK	BRIER (MSE)	SETTLED (n)	THESIS %	FEES SAVED
#1	AURORA-7	Commander	0.1782	64	96%	$482.50
#2	CHRONOS-9	Commander	0.1845	52	94%	$395.00
#3	POLARIS-3	Lieutenant	0.1912	41	91%	$310.25
#4	HYPERION-2	Lieutenant	0.1978	38	88%	$265.00
#5	ZENITH-5	Lieutenant	0.2014	32	85%	$215.75

PILOTS IN CALIBRATION (< 30 SETTLED LOGS // UNRANKED UNTIL QUALIFIED):

NOVA-CADET (18/30 logs • 12 remaining for official Brier ranking)

#	CALLSIGN	FEES SAVED	MAKER RATIO	SETTLED (n)	BRIER
#1	AURORA-7	$482.50	88%	64	0.1782
#2	CHRONOS-9	$395.00	82%	52	0.1845
#3	POLARIS-3	$310.25	79%	41	0.1912
#4	HYPERION-2	$265.00	75%	38	0.1978
#5	ZENITH-5	$215.75	71%	32	0.2014
#6	NOVA-CADET	$95.00	65%	18	0.1650

Current Status: Opted-in as CADET-7 (Pseudonymous)

STATION 2 OF 7 // STAR MAP

Navigation Station

Live Settlement Radar and oracle trajectory. Track the 60-second CME CF BRTI TWAP averaging window, constituent spot consensus (Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini), and coin-flip danger zones.

PRO COCKPIT TELEMETRY: REAL-TIME (0-SEC LATENCY)

Signed-out visitors receive 20-min delayed telemetry per Part 3.2 · Pro tier unlocked

SETTLEMENT TARGET CME CF BRTI PROXY

$91,248.49

4 venues online · 0.15 bps dispersion (NOMINAL)

Coinbase $91249.2

Kraken $91247.8

Bitstamp $91248.5

Gemini $91248.1

SERIES EXPIRY COUNTDOWN KXBTC15M

02:18

Phase: PRE_SETTLEMENT (Seconds 840–900 determine resolution)

ATM COIN-FLIP HAZARD ⚠️ ACTIVE

CRITICAL HAZARD

Spot is $1.51 from $91,250 strike with 138s remaining.

✦ Discipline: +20 XP awarded for standing down

⚠️ ACTIVE COIN-FLIP HAZARD OVERLAY (THRESHOLD: WITHIN $50 & ≤ 180s) HIGH NEGATIVE EV DRAG

The ATM contract ($91,250) is currently trading at 51¢ with 2m 18s left. Microstructure data proves that within $50 of the strike during the final 3 minutes, price action mimics random Brownian noise while Kalshi exchange taker fees peak at 1.75¢/ct (52.80% breakeven hurdle).

Rule B5 Compliant: QuanterraOS does not offer trade execution. Standing down preserves capital and strengthens calibration.

60-SECOND TWAP ORACLE RADAR // UK BMR BENCHMARK RESOLUTION STANDBY (ORACLE ACTIVATES AT T-60s)

Second 840 (T-60s) 12 Consecutive 5-Second Sub-Intervals Second 900 (Settled)

10s

15s

20s

25s

30s

35s

40s

45s

50s

55s

60s

Kalshi CFTC-regulated binary contracts do not settle on instantaneous spot prices from private apps. They resolve against the volume-weighted 60-second TWAP of the CME CF BRTI index sampled across 12 consecutive 5-second sub-intervals.

Attribution (Rule B10): Calculated from constituent spot order books (Coinbase, Kraken, Bitstamp, Gemini) as a licensed proxy indicator. CME CF BRTI (CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index) is an independent trademark of CME Group and CF Benchmarks Ltd. QuanterraOS does not distribute the raw proprietary benchmark feed.

ACTIVE KXBTC15M STRIKE LADDER TOP-OF-BOOK & FRICTION DRAG

STRIKE / TICKER	DISTANCE FROM SPOT	SECONDS LEFT	TOP OF BOOK (BID / ASK)	TAKER FEE DRAG	LIQUIDITY WALL	ZONE STATUS
$90,750	+$498.49 (+54.6 bps)	138s	$0.88 / $0.90 (2¢ spread)	$0.01 / ct (1.1%)	120 / 850 ct	NOMINAL
$91,000	+$248.49 (+27.2 bps)	138s	$0.70 / $0.72 (2¢ spread)	$0.02 / ct (2.8%)	85 / 520 ct	NOMINAL
$91,250 ATM	$-1.51 (-0.2 bps)	138s	$0.49 / $0.51 (2¢ spread)	$0.02 / ct (3.9%)	150 / 1200 ct	⚠️ COIN-FLIP HAZARD
$91,500	$-251.51 (-27.6 bps)	138s	$0.28 / $0.30 (2¢ spread)	$0.02 / ct (6.7%)	75 / 480 ct	NOMINAL
$91,750	$-501.51 (-55.0 bps)	138s	$0.08 / $0.10 (2¢ spread)	$0.01 / ct (10.0%)	90 / 640 ct	NOMINAL

STATION 3 OF 7 // FUEL & REACTOR

Engineering Station

True-Cost calculation reactor. Audit exchange taker fee curves, Maker/Taker savings, aggregate order rounding consolidation, and cross-venue net spread.

REACTOR CONTROL POD // ORDER SPECIFICATIONS RULE B5 LOCKED ($0.00 LIVE RISK)

Contract Ask Price 51¢ ($0.51)

Order Quantity (Contracts) 10 ct

Assessed Win Probability 55.0%

Strictly labeled your assumption (not an automated model forecast).

Execution Venue

Settles on Settlement-Index Proxy (BRTI Constituents)

PURCHASE OUTLAY CAPITAL

$5.10

10 contracts @ $0.51

EXCHANGE TAKER FEE PEAK DRAG

$0.18

1.80¢ / contract (3.53% outlay drag)

REQUIRED BREAKEVEN HURDLE RATE

52.80%

Raw: 52.75% (Hurdle: +1.80%)

NET EXPECTED VALUE YOUR ASSUMPTION

+$0.22

+2.20¢ net expectancy / ct

⚡ MAKER VS. TAKER SAVER // PASSIVE LIQUIDITY ACCELERATOR 100% TAKER FEE SAVED

Taker Execution Fee

$0.18

Pays exchange crossing toll

Maker Limit Order Fee

$0.00

Posts passive book liquidity

Instant Dollar Savings

$0.18

+353 bps preserved

Hurdle Reduction

-1.80%

Direct win-rate threshold drop

Methodology Note: Maker orders on Kalshi incur $0.00 fee. Fill probability estimate is derived from top-of-book depth queue size and does not guarantee execution. Estimated fill probability from orderbook depth: ~93%.

⚙️ ROUNDING OPTIMIZER // CEIL() FRICTION AUDITOR DISCRETE CENT ARITHMETIC

Kalshi rounds taker fees up to the nearest full cent per order: ceil(0.07 × Count × P × (1 − P)). Placing discrete small orders creates severe fractional-cent penalties that vanish upon consolidation.

1 Contract @ 51¢

2¢ Fee

+0.25¢ drag (14.3% penalty)

10 Contracts @ 51¢

18¢ Fee

+0.05¢ drag (1.80¢/ct)

50 Contracts @ 51¢

88¢ Fee

+0.01¢ drag (1.76¢/ct)

100 Contracts @ 50¢

$1.75 Fee

0.00¢ drag (Exact 1.75¢/ct)

Consolidation Recommendation: Consolidating 5 separate 10-contract orders into 1 single order of 50 contracts saves $0.02 (2¢) in rounding friction.

⚖️ CROSS-VENUE NET SPREAD // KALSHI VS. POLYMARKET NET FRICTION DEDUCTION

Kalshi KXBTC15M Price

51.0¢

Taker Fee: 1.80¢ / ct

Polymarket BTC 15m Price

53.0¢

Protocol Fee: 0.00¢ / ct

Gross Quoted Spread

2.00¢

Apparent price difference

Net Spread (After Both Fees)

0.20¢

Taker friction consumes 90% of spread

Settlement Risk Hazard: Settlement Risk Warning: Kalshi settles strictly against CME CF BRTI 60-second TWAP index. Polymarket settles via UMA decentralized oracle. Price differences may reflect settlement-mechanism divergence rather than actionable pricing error.

STATION 4 OF 7 // CAPTAIN'S LOG

Mission Log Station

Thesis → Trade → Settle lifecycle tracking, automated Kalshi CSV statement import, personal Brier scoring, and avoidable fee drag auditing.

RECORDED MISSIONS JOURNAL

3 settled · 1 active staging

PERSONAL BRIER SCORE CALIBRATED

0.1258

Beating market mid (0.2001) & coin-flip (0.2500)

AVOIDABLE FEE FRICTION SAVINGS RECORD

$0.31

Total paid: $0.31 · 75% maker ratio

DISCIPLINE XP ANTI-VOLUME

+330 XP

100% logged with thesis & max-loss

📝 STAGE NEW MISSION THESIS // PRE-FLIGHT COMMITMENT +15 XP DISCIPLINE REWARD

Part 0.3 Guardrail: No live execution exists in QuanterraOS. Writing your thesis and defining your max-loss before market entry enforces cognitive discipline and calibrates probability forecasting.

Contract Ticker

Contract Side

Planned Price 51¢ ($0.51)

Contracts 10 ct

Assessed Probability 58.0%

Order Role

Written Thesis Rationale & Invalidation Criteria

MAX LOSS ACKNOWLEDGED: $5.10 ($5.10 outlay + $0.00 maker fee)

📂 KALSHI CSV FILL & STATEMENT IMPORTER RFC 4180 COMPLIANT PARSER

Import your official Kalshi trade reports or statement CSV to automatically calculate historical taker fee drag, tally avoidable friction, and calibrate your empirical personal Brier score.

Data isolation: CSV processing is parsed client-side in browser memory with zero third-party transmission.

🎯 PERSONAL BRIER CALIBRATION SCORE // EMPIRICAL RESOLUTION ACCURACY +100 XP REWARD FOR 30-DAY IMPROVEMENT

Your Rolling Brier Score

0.1258

✓ Outperforming market midpoint (0.2001) by +0.95%

50/50 Coin-Flip Baseline: 0.2500 (Uncalibrated)

Kalshi Market Midpoint (n=1,316): 0.2001 (Aggregated)

Your Personal Record (n=3): 0.1258

How Calibration Works: Brier Score measures mean squared error: MSE = (1/N) × Σ(p − outcome)². A lower score signifies sharper calibration. A trader who always guesses 50% scores 0.2500. Improving your 30-day score awards +100 XP toward your Pilot Rank.

MISSION JOURNAL // THESIS → TRADE → SETTLE AUDIT LEDGER DISCIPLINE AUDITED

MISSION ID	TICKER / SIDE	ASSESSED PROB	THESIS RATIONALE	ORDER ROLE	FEES PAID / SAVED	STATUS / OUTCOME	DISCIPLINE XP
mis_sample_04 USER_ENTERED	KXBTC15M-91250 yes	55.0% 10 ct @ $0.51	Pre-flight true cost check completed. Standing down from taker fee peak; placing passive maker bid.	MAKER (0¢ fee)	$0.00 paid 100% friction saved		+55 XP
mis_sample_01 USER_ENTERED	KXBTC15M-91250 yes	58.0% 10 ct @ $0.51	Coinbase orderbook bid depth wall and momentum convergence above 91,240 support.	MAKER (0¢ fee)	$0.00 paid 100% friction saved	YES (Error: 0.1764)	+105 XP
mis_sample_02 USER_ENTERED	KXBTC15M-91000 yes	72.0% 20 ct @ $0.68	Consensus TWAP trend firmly above strike; 4 constituents in tight 1.2 bps alignment.	TAKER	$0.31 paid +$0.31 avoidable	YES (Error: 0.0784)	+65 XP
mis_sample_03 USER_ENTERED	KXBTC15M-91500 no	65.0% 15 ct @ $0.32	Resistance at 91,480 holding with whale taker sell imbalance.	MAKER (0¢ fee)	$0.00 paid 100% friction saved	NO (Error: 0.1225)	+105 XP

⚖️ CFTC RULE 4.41 MANDATORY HYPOTHETICAL DISCLOSURE & RULE B5 NOTICE

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

QuanterraOS Shadow Mode operates under strict Rule B5 compliance as an educational paper simulation tool. We never connect to brokerages, route orders, hold user funds, or provide automated trade execution. All figures represent hypothetical models after friction.

HYPOTHETICAL NET P&L AFTER FRICTION

+$671.80

Gross: $706.00 • 3 settled

TOTAL FRICTION DRAG FEES + SLIPPAGE

-$69.87

Taker fees: $42.87 • Slip: $27.00

SIMULATED BRIER SCORE CALIBRATION

0.1620

✓ Beats market midpoint (0.2001)

ACTIVE SHADOW RULES STANDBY ENGINE

3 RULES

0 live orders • 100% paper execution

ACTIVE SHADOW TRACKING RULES // REALISTIC LATENCY & SLIPPAGE CONFIGURATION

ZERO LIVE ROUTING

Whale Flow > $10k Buys

Paper-record copy fills for any institutional buy transaction exceeding $10,000 notional.

Slippage: +1¢ Latency: 350ms ✓ Hazard Shield

Follow Pilot-71c (Exemplary Alpha)

Track Polymarket wallet 0x71c8...c70a (Brier: 0.1245) with +1¢ realistic slippage friction.

Slippage: +1¢ Latency: 250ms

Follow Whale-48f (Net-After-Fees)

Audit copy tracking of 0x48f9...e612 with simulated taker fee and latency deduction.

Slippage: +1.5¢ Latency: 400ms ✓ Hazard Shield

Coin-Flip Hazard Shield

Automatically skip / stand down from public prints entered in 40¢-60¢ coin-flip danger zone.

Slippage: +1¢ Latency: 300ms ✓ Hazard Shield

SHADOW PAPER AUDIT LEDGER // HYPOTHETICAL AFTER-FEE PERFORMANCE 4 PAPER EXECUTIONS

EXEC TIME	TICKER & SIDE	TARGET SOURCE	NOMINAL → FILL	NOTIONAL	TAKER FEE	SLIPPAGE DRAG	NET HYPOTHETICAL P&L	BRIER (p-o)²
14:32 UTC	KXFED-26OCT-500 YES • POLYMARKET	0x71c8...c70a	32¢ → 33¢ (+1¢)	1,000 ct $330.00	-$15.24	-$10.00	+$654.76	0.1089
18:15 UTC	KXBTC15M-91500 YES • KALSHI	CFTC T...int)	52¢ → 53¢ (+1¢)	400 ct $212.00	-$6.98	-$4.00	-$218.98	0.2809
08:45 UTC	KXCPI-26SEP-CORE NO • POLYMARKET	0x71c8...c70a	68¢ → 69¢ (+1¢)	800 ct $552.00	-$11.98	-$8.00	+$236.02	0.0961
16:20 UTC	KXBTC1H-92000 YES • KALSHI	CFTC T...int)	44¢ → 45¢ (+1¢)	500 ct $225.00	-$8.67	-$5.00	PENDING	--

STATION 5 OF 7 // LONG-RANGE SCANNERS

Sensors Station

Whale order flow scanners and market microstructure telemetry with net-after-fees and settlement basis context. Includes Shadow Mode observation tracking.

WHALE PRINTS (24H) > 500 CT

Net taker fee drag: $47.13

SHADOW MODE PAPER SIM

ACTIVE

Simulating order fills with 0 live capital →

CROSS-VENUE BASIS KALSHI VS POLY

±$14.20

BRTI vs UMA resolution delta

LARGE-TRADE FLOW TELEMETRY // NET-AFTER-FEES & SETTLEMENT CONTEXT

CFTC & ON-CHAIN TAPE

Every transaction is enriched with exact regulatory taker fee friction, required breakeven shifts, and settlement proximity. Volume is never an indicator of predictive edge.

VENUE	TICKER & SIDE	SIZE & NOTIONAL	EXEC PRICE	NET-AFTER-FEES	SETTLEMENT CONTEXT	IDENTITY
KALSHI	KXBTC15M-26OCT09-91250 YES • TAKER	1,000 ct $510.00	51¢	Fee: $17.50 Breakeven: 52.75% Net Max Loss: $527.50	CME CF BRTI (60s TWAP) ⚠️ HAZARD: ±$8 (120s)	CFTC-PUBLIC-TAPE
TAKER FEE FORMULA 0.07 × C × P × (1 - P) -$17.50 (343 bps drag) BREAKEVEN HURDLE SHIFT 51.0% → 52.75% (+1.75%) Must win 52.8% to break even SETTLEMENT ORACLE STATUS ⚠️ COIN-FLIP HAZARD CME CF BRTI (60s TWAP) • 120s to expiry DISCIPLINE AUDIT ACTION ZERO LIVE CAPITAL
POLYMARKET	POLY-BTC-91500-1H YES • MAKER	2,500 ct $1100.00	44¢	Fee: $0.00 Breakeven: 44.00% Net Max Loss: $1100.00	UMA Decentralized Oracle Dist: $180 (1800s)	0x3f9d...88c2
TAKER FEE FORMULA 0.00% maker / 0.00% gas-free -$0.00 (0 bps drag) BREAKEVEN HURDLE SHIFT 44.0% → 44.00% (+0.00%) Must win 44.0% to break even SETTLEMENT ORACLE STATUS ✓ NORMAL RESOLUTION UMA Decentralized Oracle • 1800s to expiry DISCIPLINE AUDIT ACTION ZERO LIVE CAPITAL
KALSHI	KXBTC15M-26OCT09-91100 NO • TAKER	500 ct $110.00	22¢	Fee: $6.01 Breakeven: 23.20% Net Max Loss: $116.01	CME CF BRTI (60s TWAP) Dist: $140 (270s)	CFTC-PUBLIC-TAPE
TAKER FEE FORMULA 0.07 × C × P × (1 - P) -$6.01 (546 bps drag) BREAKEVEN HURDLE SHIFT 22.0% → 23.20% (+1.20%) Must win 23.2% to break even SETTLEMENT ORACLE STATUS ✓ NORMAL RESOLUTION CME CF BRTI (60s TWAP) • 270s to expiry DISCIPLINE AUDIT ACTION ZERO LIVE CAPITAL
POLYMARKET	POLY-FED-RATE-NOV YES • TAKER	8,000 ct $6560.00	82¢	Fee: $23.62 Breakeven: 82.30% Net Max Loss: $6583.62	UMA Decentralized Oracle Dist: $0 (1209600s)	0x82a1...4410
TAKER FEE FORMULA 0.00% maker / 0.00% gas-free -$23.62 (36 bps drag) BREAKEVEN HURDLE SHIFT 82.0% → 82.30% (+0.30%) Must win 82.3% to break even SETTLEMENT ORACLE STATUS ✓ NORMAL RESOLUTION UMA Decentralized Oracle • 1209600s to expiry DISCIPLINE AUDIT ACTION ZERO LIVE CAPITAL
KALSHI	KXBTC15M-26OCT09-91300 YES • MAKER	1,500 ct $525.00	35¢	Fee: $0.00 Breakeven: 35.00% Net Max Loss: $525.00	CME CF BRTI (60s TWAP) Dist: $60 (560s)	CFTC-PUBLIC-TAPE
TAKER FEE FORMULA 0.07 × C × P × (1 - P) -$0.00 (0 bps drag) BREAKEVEN HURDLE SHIFT 35.0% → 35.00% (+0.00%) Must win 35.0% to break even SETTLEMENT ORACLE STATUS ✓ NORMAL RESOLUTION CME CF BRTI (60s TWAP) • 560s to expiry DISCIPLINE AUDIT ACTION ZERO LIVE CAPITAL

QuanterraOS Sensors Layer · Rule B5 Compliant (Zero Live Execution / No Order Routing) CFTC Rule 4.41 Compliant

POLYMARKET WALLET CALIBRATION TRACK RECORD CARDS // PROBABILISTIC BRIER SCORING

ON-CHAIN CALIBRATION AUDIT

Evaluating public on-chain Polymarket wallets by probabilistic calibration (Brier score & reliability) rather than misleading raw P&L or high win rates. Exposes the Favorite-Chaser Paradox (traders winning 80% of trades on 90¢ contracts while underperforming a naive coin flip).

Benchmark Profiles:

Pilot-71c // Exemplary Calibrated

Address: 0x71c893699b2447b8536b04b1fbfda3d95b58c70a (0x71c8...c70a)

EXEMPLARY CALIBRATION (ALPHA)

CALIBRATION BRIER SCORE

0.1268

+49.3% vs Coin-Flip (0.2500)

Market Mid: 0.2001 · Lower is better

RAW WIN RATE (5 SETTLED)

80.0%

Realized settlement win rate

Win rate ignores entry odds and tail risk

BIAS & HAZARD PROFILE

Favorite Bias (≥80¢): 0.0%

Coin-Flip Zone (40-60¢): 40.0%

Long-Shot Bias (≤20¢): 0.0%

FINANCIALS & TAKER FRICTION

Gross P&L: +$17,000

Taker Fees Paid: -$560

True Net P&L: +$16,440

Fee Drag: 2.00% of total notional

Calibration Analysis: Exceptional probability discipline. Forecasted probabilities tightly match realized base rates with minimal tail-risk drag.

Settled Positions Sample (5 recorded prints)

MARKET / QUESTION	SIDE & ODDS	RESULT	BRIER PENALTY (p - o)²	NET P&L
Fed reduces rates by 25bps in November? FED-NOV-25BP • 10,000 ct	YES @ 68¢ (68%)	WON (o=1)	0.1024	+$3,064
Bitcoin touches $100,000 before Dec 31? BTC-100K-EOY • 15,000 ct	NO @ 42¢ (42%)	WON (o=1)	0.1764	+$8,574
ETH spot ETFs net positive inflows Q4? ETH-ETF-NET-INFLOW • 8,000 ct	YES @ 55¢ (55%)	WON (o=1)	0.2025	+$3,512
Solana flips BNB market cap in October? SOL-FLIP-BNB • 5,000 ct	YES @ 30¢ (30%)	LOST (o=0)	0.0900	-$1,530
ECB cuts deposit facility rate at October meeting? ECB-RATE-CUT-OCT • 12,000 ct	YES @ 75¢ (75%)	WON (o=1)	0.0625	+$2,820

CFTC Rule 4.41 & Rule B5: Historical wallet performance does not guarantee future outcomes. QuanterraOS does not offer copy-trading or investment advice. Probability calibration reflects empirical scoring.

STATION 6 OF 7 // CREW QUARTERS

Crew Quarters & Aria Ship's Computer

8 launch AI crew specialists operating under strict mathematical tool scopes and non-advisory guardrails (Part 3.3). Consult your specialists or chat directly with Aria, your central conversational router.

ARIA // SHIP'S COMPUTER CONVERSATIONAL ROUTER

100% NON-ADVISORY GROUNDED

Aria is your single conversational entry point. Grounded strictly on calculator outputs, user journal records, published /proof benchmarks, and Flight School lessons. Refuses all buy/sell and edge requests with mathematical cost reflections.

8 SPECIALIZED LAUNCH CREW MEMBERS // NON-ADVISORY SPECIALISTS

NAVIGATOR

AI SPECIALIST

Vega-1

Station: Navigation (Star Map)

Explains BRTI vs spot, time-to-expiry, strike distance

99.98% tick sync uptime · Mean latency 142ms · 0.0 bps index derivation variance

evaluateCoinFlipZonecomputeConstituentDispersioncomputeTwapWindowStatusgenerateNavigationStrikeLadder

CHIEF ENGINEER

AI SPECIALIST

Torque

Station: Engineering (Fuel & Reactor)

Fee, breakeven, maker/taker, rounding

100.00% round-trip formula invariance · Exact cent ceiling precision

computeTrueCostCheckcomputeMakerTakerSavercomputeRoundingOptimizercomputeCrossVenueNetSpread

QUARTERMASTER

AI SPECIALIST

Ledger

Station: Mission Log (Captain's Log)

Journal entry, CSV import, fees-paid report

100% audit trail reconciliation · SHA-256 verified imports

createMissionThesissettleMissionEntryparseKalshiCsvToMissionssummarizeMissionLogs

SCIENCE OFFICER

AI SPECIALIST

Kelvin

Station: Bridge / Proof Lab

Calibration math, Brier, 'is the market mid well-calibrated?'

Market Mid Brier: 0.2001 · Model Brier: 0.2063 · Climatology: 0.2500

calculateBrierScorecomputeCalibrationCurveevaluateReliabilityDiagram

SECURITY CHIEF

AI SPECIALIST

Aegis

Station: Hangar (Ship Config & Safety)

Limits, tilt cooldown, session timer

100% enforcement reliability · Immediate 15-minute systems cooldown triggers

checkTiltStatusrecordLossAndEvaluateTiltapplySelfPausesyncResponsibleLimits

COMMS OFFICER

AI SPECIALIST

Signal

Station: Bridge / News Digest

Macro/BTC event calendar, Mission Brief digest

Real-time calendar synchronization · Zero unsourced market commentary

getMacroCalendargetMissionBriefDigestgetSettlementSchedule

FLIGHT INSTRUCTOR

AI SPECIALIST

Orion

Station: Flight School / Academy

Lessons, quizzes, mission explanations

100% process-centric syllabus · Zero trading signals or pick generation

getLessonCurriculumvalidateQuizAnswerexplainMissionObjective

SENSORS OFFICER

AI SPECIALIST

Argos

Station: Sensors (Long-Range Scanners)

Whale feed with net-after-fees context, Shadow Mode setup

100% fee-adjusted tape transactions · CFTC Rule 4.41 audited paper framework

scanLargeTradesWithFeessetupShadowModePaperTrackingcomputeWalletCalibration

HUMAN FLIGHT INSTRUCTOR SESSIONS PROCESS COACHING ONLY

Book a 45-Minute Pre-Trade Calibration Flight Check

Review your personal Brier score, fee friction drag, and cognitive bias log with an experienced quant flight instructor. We do not provide buy/sell signals or financial advice.

Browse Flight School →

STATION 7 OF 7 // SHIP CONFIG

Hangar Station

Pilot profile, responsible trading boundaries (18+ gate, session limits, tilt cooldown), telemetry acoustic controls, embed widgets, and developer API keys.

RESPONSIBLE-TRADING CONTROLS MULTI-DEVICE SYNC

18+ Age Attestation

Kalshi requires age 18+. Verified boolean on file.

VERIFIED ✓

Daily Loss Limit

Triggers warning and Security Chief stand-down

Weekly Loss Limit

Maximum cumulative weekly loss ceiling

Monthly Fee Budget

Powers Fuel gauge burn rate warning

Session Timer Reminder

Alerts pilot after continuous cockpit usage

TILT DETECTION COOLDOWN ACTIVE MONITORING

Automated behavioral circuit breaker: If 3+ losses are logged within 60 minutes or rapid re-entry occurs after a loss, the Flight Deck engages a 15-minute Systems Cooldown.

Cooldowns Respected: 0

✦ Respecting a tilt cooldown awards +25 XP discipline toward Pilot rank.

"TAKE A BREAK" SELF-PAUSE VOLUNTARY COOL-OFF

Temporarily step back from market telemetry. Self-pause suspends real-time Radar push alerts and switches your cockpit terminal into read-only study mode.

Status: Cockpit active (No self-pause engaged)

RESPONSIBLE TRADING SUPPORT 24/7 CONFIDENTIAL

Short-duration binary prediction markets involve substantial risk of capital loss. If trading is causing financial or emotional distress, immediate free and confidential assistance is available:

National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-522-4700)

Call or text 24/7/365 across the United States.

Gamblers Anonymous: gamblersanonymous.org ↗

HAPTIC FEEDBACK & ACCESSIBILITY TACTILE TELEMETRY

Tactile vibration micro-feedback for station switching, slider increments, gauge thresholds, and tilt warnings on supported mobile devices.

Haptic Vibrations

Suppressed when prefers-reduced-motion is active

Bridge Station

Navigation Station

Engineering Station

Mission Log Station

Sensors Station

Crew Quarters & Aria Ship's Computer

Hangar Station

15-Minute Flight Deck Cooldown

Celebration

Bridge Station

Navigation Station

Engineering Station

Mission Log Station

Sensors Station

Crew Quarters & Aria Ship's Computer

Hangar Station

15-Minute Flight Deck Cooldown

Age Attestation Required

Celebration